These are my quick thoughts on the primary tonight.
US Senate:
Angie Nixon won because she flat hustled.
Much has been made of the money difference, but in reality, these were two candidates who had virtually no statewide presence. Neither candidate was spending enough to build a statewide brand, and in the end, the candidate who put more effort into it personally won.
Most of Vindman spending was on list acquisition and digital fundraising, and as of the last FEC report, he still had 7-8 million in the bank. Had he spent his cash on hand, the result might have been different. But the made a bet that they needed to lean into the general, and it was a bet that they lost.
I think she has a very uphill battle - Ashley Moody is underrated - in every election she’s run, including tonight, she’s been the state’s top vote getter. But tonight Angie showed that some times, grit can be enough.
US House Races:
For the most part here, there were no big surprises.
In the races that got the most attention, Jared Moscowitz easily defeated his DSA opponent, which should surprise exactly no one who knows anything about Florida.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz winning should also surprise no one, given the nature of that field. The DSA candidate there, despite the noise, finished a very distant third.
Randy Fine beat his opponent who ran an ad that praised Hitler.
And Cory Mills lost to former local TV personality Ryan Elijah, in a race where Governor DeSantis made it clear that he did not support Mills and Trump stopped talking about him. Personally, I am less surprised that Mills loss than I am by the margin that he lost by. Good riddance.
Austin Rogers in FL 2 (GOP), Joe Strada in FL 11 (GOP), Jim Schwartzel in FL 19 (GOP), and Oliver Gilbert in FL-24 (Dem), all won their open seat primaries for Congress and are heavily favorites to win their generals and go to Congress.
And Alan Grayson lost his seventh consecutive campaign. Again, good riddance.
Looking ahead, there are a bunch of interesting match-ups going into the general.
FL 7: Bale Dalton easily dispatched his DSA aligned Dem opponent, setting up a race with Ryan Elijah. For Dems, this race is almost surely harder than it would have been with Mills, but Dalton is a strong candidate and gives Dems a real shot.
FL 9: Republicans chose Dan Green, a Navy veteran from Indian River County to take on Darren Soto in a newly drawn district. Of the 4 Dem incumbents impacted by redistricting, Darren will have the hardest race.
FL 13: Democrats chose retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray to take on Anna Paulina Luna in a redrawn Pinellas County based seat. The seat leans Republican, but Gray is a great candidate.
FL 14: Republicans chose Mike Beltran, a former State House member, to take on Kathy Castor. This is a seat the GOP drew to be lean Republican, but in this cycle, especially with Castor’s strong record in the district, this will be very much a toss-up.
FL 16: Republicans chose Sydney Gruters, the wife of current RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, while Democrats chose former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner in this seat that in a normal cycle would be predictably Republican, but whose large base in St. Pete gives Democrats a shot.
FL 22: This could be the most interesting open seat of the cycle, with Republicans choosing Casey Askar to take on the Dem primary winner, Pia Dandiya. Quite simply, Pia has been one of the stars of the cycle nationally for Dems, and in this cycle, I’d argue starts out as the favorite to win this seat.
FL 25: Jared Moscowitz easily defeated his socialist primary opponent, setting up a match with Scott Singer, the GOP Mayor of Boca Raton. Jared should be considered the favorite here.
FL 27: Democrats chose Eliot Rodriguez, a long time local TV personality to take on Maria Salazar. Whether Rodriguez can make this race competitive or not, this is the kind of seat that Democrats have to be able to win going forward to have a real shot in Florida.
The math is this - Dems currently hold 8 seats. To not lose seat, they really need to win FL 14, FL 22, and FL 25 — and then, unless Soto can hold on, at least one of the others above.
Governor’s Race
To be honest, I expected Donalds to win with a larger margin (I had taken him at 61 in a pool), so his 48% was a little surprising. Frankly, I had Jolly a little higher in the pool as well.
I will write a longer piece about this going forward, but the math for Jolly to win is basically this: ensure Dem turnout is higher than Republican turnout to reduce GOP registration advantages (tonight the percentage of R’s and D’s who voted in their Gov primary was about 30%), win independents by 20 or so, and win 4-5% more Republicans than Donalds wins of Democrats. Hard? Yes. Impossible? Not if Jolly has the money.
On paper, Donalds has a cleaner path to 50 and a large war chest, but he also has a more divided field to build from. And Jolly needs donors to step up in a big way to help him compete. But this is not a race that is over tonight by any means.
Other notes:
No incumbents in the Florida Legislature lost their primary tonight, which is the first time this has happened in a few cycles. I’ll write a longer piece on this later.
Great overview, Steve! Maybe I just worry too much, but Moskowitz winning 63-37% (among other results) doesn't really make me feel good about the Democratic Party in the long run.
For much of this primary cycle, and across multiple states, I've watched strong Democratic House candidates only get around 60% of the vote in their primaries. I worry that in 2028, we'll see even closer primary races, and more instances of mainstream Dems who make good general election candidates losing to progressives.
Thanks for the overview. I'm so disappointed in Mr. Vindman's loss. I thought he had a real chance at winning the general. Politically I'm more connected with Ms. Nixon but I believe she has zero chance at winning. As for Mr. Askar, I taught two of his sons and chatted with him a few times. He's a good person and parent. Too conservative for my taste but I'm in CD 26.