We spent three weeks talking to voters in 21 key counties in 10 states that have been Presidential battlegrounds over the last four cycles to listen to what they think of Democrats.
First, thank you for focusing on winning in swing/reddish counties. Thank you for talking about the challenges of winning Senate seats and even Congressional seats as well as the White House.
Obviously woke will be a challenge for AOC and any other progressives to overcome.
But on change, fighting corruption, attacking elites in Washington, orienting towards the working class and working families, forcing the rich to pay their fair share, that sounds like AOC, Crockett, Mamdani and other progressives.
It seems to me that none of them could be considered “weak” either.
Now “competence” hits the wall of a certain segment of the population is convinced that everyone who isn’t white and male is a DEI beneficiary. So maybe that is hard for them too.
But I see the progressive part of the party much more likely to lean into economic issues and particularly economic populism. The center rarely even says “working class”, it’s mostly “middle class”. They also often attacked the anti-monopoly work of Lina Khan and promote more business friendly reforms and policies.
I do think that Democrats should on social issues focus on persuasion rather than law making or judicial rulings. Otherwise any victories on social issues will be pyrrhic and short lived.
Living in Eau Claire (county & proper) here in Wiscosin's 3rd Congressional District, represented by the reprehensible & absent Van Orden, and dumber'n cheese Ron Johnson, and watching our gerrymandered votes go to the manifestly unworthy time and time again, I and those like me, are simply disgusted and heartbroken by the lack of vision and imagination shown by the Dems. Our homegrown ones are righteous, but they are of the people and understand the issues we face, both current (St Tammy) and the prospectives lining up for Von Gin-blossom's spot. I mean come on, 'woke' is the easiest set of notions to explain, support, and convince the mouth-breathers of...if you speak the language. Economic populism/tax the rich fuckers? How come you can't push that idea so sticks like cow-shit to a clod-hopper's bare foot?
In 2016 I watched Bernie fill the old UWEC Zorn arena. Huge overflow crowd trailed all the way up the hill to the dorms. 1000s & 1000s came out for Sanders. (That was the year the DNC shut him down, remember?) The trumpster filled the gym at Memorial, and the yokels swarmed in nearly equally number to Bern's; but not quite. Ever. The Clinton campaign sent a ringer to a convention room at a downtown hotel. Couple hundred there. What's changed? The geriatrics are another decade older. That's about it. And they need to get out of the way.
We want smart. We want fearless. We want present. We want fire in the belly, because our lives depend upon that. We want worthy to serve, and if that ain't you, get the fuck out of the way. Now.
There are gonna be people who hate me for what I'm about to say here. But: I am a h-a-r-d Democrat and if people don't get their head out of their asses, all of this is lost. You still have people who read this excellent report and think there is a path forward nationally with AOC and Jasmine Crockett and Mamdani. There is not. Here in Virginia, the Governor's race is shaping up to turn on whether you want an ex-CIA officer elected or a former Marine. Yet Indivisible is down here putting "Democratic Socialists" on there event lineups. Do you really think that is going to persude voters on the fence to support Democrats? If you believe that please share whatever you are smoking because it ain't happening. People need to wake the eff up.
That’s not the issue. The people that voted for Harris will still vote democratic. It’s the folks on them edges we need to persuade and, honestly, Trump is helping us with that. We just need to make sure they take the time to understand that.
Really good stuff, Steve, and this data is so helpful to have! I'm especially grateful that you asked about those six Democrats in these counties, and as a big Andy Beshear fan, I feel validated. :)
I saw him the other day and I agree. He’s very good and he is governor of one of the reddest states. I hope he considers running, I think the democrats need him at this time more than AOC. Hey I think she’s great but the so called Overton Window isn’t open leftward enough!
As a North Carolinian, I am curious about Wake County being included. The county seemed to get bluer as a whole versus somewhere further south like Scotland or Robeson, which have become staunchly Republican in the last decade after Democrats won most of the time. We could look at swing precincts in Wake, such as Fuquay-Varina or areas close to Wake Forest, or the Johnston County border. Is it more about an established base?
Wanted to see similarities and differences between counties moving good & bad, so 5 of the 21 counties have had some positive trend. Duval in Fl is another
Totally agree Brad. Long debate on how to do this and we ended up going with more exurban choices - some of it just a function of getting through a sample. But I would love to do a survey of just rural counties
This is great analysis. These are the real swing voters that want to see democrats assume their traditional role as advocates for the working people and the middle class. The United States has historically been a place where people working people were able to make it into the middle class and where the rich paid fair taxes and didn’t have such a shocking amount of the national wealth. The democrats need to be seen as getting back to a country where this is a reality. And I think many people in the party are recognizing that the party needs to stop catering to these activists that are called “the Groups “ by Matt Iglesias. If you haven’t already read him, you’ll find that he is really getting at the same messaging problem that the democrats have. Restacking !
First, thank you for focusing on winning in swing/reddish counties. Thank you for talking about the challenges of winning Senate seats and even Congressional seats as well as the White House.
Obviously woke will be a challenge for AOC and any other progressives to overcome.
But on change, fighting corruption, attacking elites in Washington, orienting towards the working class and working families, forcing the rich to pay their fair share, that sounds like AOC, Crockett, Mamdani and other progressives.
It seems to me that none of them could be considered “weak” either.
Now “competence” hits the wall of a certain segment of the population is convinced that everyone who isn’t white and male is a DEI beneficiary. So maybe that is hard for them too.
But I see the progressive part of the party much more likely to lean into economic issues and particularly economic populism. The center rarely even says “working class”, it’s mostly “middle class”. They also often attacked the anti-monopoly work of Lina Khan and promote more business friendly reforms and policies.
I do think that Democrats should on social issues focus on persuasion rather than law making or judicial rulings. Otherwise any victories on social issues will be pyrrhic and short lived.
Living in Eau Claire (county & proper) here in Wiscosin's 3rd Congressional District, represented by the reprehensible & absent Van Orden, and dumber'n cheese Ron Johnson, and watching our gerrymandered votes go to the manifestly unworthy time and time again, I and those like me, are simply disgusted and heartbroken by the lack of vision and imagination shown by the Dems. Our homegrown ones are righteous, but they are of the people and understand the issues we face, both current (St Tammy) and the prospectives lining up for Von Gin-blossom's spot. I mean come on, 'woke' is the easiest set of notions to explain, support, and convince the mouth-breathers of...if you speak the language. Economic populism/tax the rich fuckers? How come you can't push that idea so sticks like cow-shit to a clod-hopper's bare foot?
In 2016 I watched Bernie fill the old UWEC Zorn arena. Huge overflow crowd trailed all the way up the hill to the dorms. 1000s & 1000s came out for Sanders. (That was the year the DNC shut him down, remember?) The trumpster filled the gym at Memorial, and the yokels swarmed in nearly equally number to Bern's; but not quite. Ever. The Clinton campaign sent a ringer to a convention room at a downtown hotel. Couple hundred there. What's changed? The geriatrics are another decade older. That's about it. And they need to get out of the way.
We want smart. We want fearless. We want present. We want fire in the belly, because our lives depend upon that. We want worthy to serve, and if that ain't you, get the fuck out of the way. Now.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
S. McS.
There are gonna be people who hate me for what I'm about to say here. But: I am a h-a-r-d Democrat and if people don't get their head out of their asses, all of this is lost. You still have people who read this excellent report and think there is a path forward nationally with AOC and Jasmine Crockett and Mamdani. There is not. Here in Virginia, the Governor's race is shaping up to turn on whether you want an ex-CIA officer elected or a former Marine. Yet Indivisible is down here putting "Democratic Socialists" on there event lineups. Do you really think that is going to persude voters on the fence to support Democrats? If you believe that please share whatever you are smoking because it ain't happening. People need to wake the eff up.
That’s not the issue. The people that voted for Harris will still vote democratic. It’s the folks on them edges we need to persuade and, honestly, Trump is helping us with that. We just need to make sure they take the time to understand that.
Really good stuff, Steve, and this data is so helpful to have! I'm especially grateful that you asked about those six Democrats in these counties, and as a big Andy Beshear fan, I feel validated. :)
I saw him the other day and I agree. He’s very good and he is governor of one of the reddest states. I hope he considers running, I think the democrats need him at this time more than AOC. Hey I think she’s great but the so called Overton Window isn’t open leftward enough!
As a North Carolinian, I am curious about Wake County being included. The county seemed to get bluer as a whole versus somewhere further south like Scotland or Robeson, which have become staunchly Republican in the last decade after Democrats won most of the time. We could look at swing precincts in Wake, such as Fuquay-Varina or areas close to Wake Forest, or the Johnston County border. Is it more about an established base?
Wanted to see similarities and differences between counties moving good & bad, so 5 of the 21 counties have had some positive trend. Duval in Fl is another
Why no rural counties? Trump expanded margins each time he ran in rural America. White flag in the country?
Totally agree Brad. Long debate on how to do this and we ended up going with more exurban choices - some of it just a function of getting through a sample. But I would love to do a survey of just rural counties
This is great analysis. These are the real swing voters that want to see democrats assume their traditional role as advocates for the working people and the middle class. The United States has historically been a place where people working people were able to make it into the middle class and where the rich paid fair taxes and didn’t have such a shocking amount of the national wealth. The democrats need to be seen as getting back to a country where this is a reality. And I think many people in the party are recognizing that the party needs to stop catering to these activists that are called “the Groups “ by Matt Iglesias. If you haven’t already read him, you’ll find that he is really getting at the same messaging problem that the democrats have. Restacking !
it's a failure of education, and bound to get worse...